The Most At-Risk Jobs - And Why Skilled Trades Are Cementing Their Future

Updated August 13, 2025 | Brad Fishbein

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McKinsey estimates that by 2030, up to 30% of U.S. work hours could be automated, accelerating a seismic shift we’re already witnessing1.
White-collar roles? Vulnerable. Entry-level service jobs? Disappearing.
But skilled trades? They’re not just surviving - they’re thriving.

The Fast-Food Example: Automation in Action

Imagine this:

  • You order via a tablet or app (no cashier).
  • Robotic arms cook your meal (Cali Group’s "Flippy" already flips burgers at White Castle2).
  • A Tesla Optimus robot packs your order.
  • A Tesla robotaxi delivers it to your doorstep.

Result? One $15/hour fast-food job vanishes every 30 minutes robots operate3.
McDonald’s now deploys kiosks in 100% of new U.S. stores4.

most-at-risk-jobs

White-Collar Workers: The AI Squeeze is Real

If your job involves routine data analysis, writing, or process-driven tasks, AI is coming for it.

  • AI-generated reports can slash a 4-hour task to 4 minutes (ChatGPT processes ~10M queries daily5).
  • Marketing teams are now 60% smaller but 200% more productive with AI tools6.
  • IBM paused hiring for 7,800 roles in 2023, openly citing AI replacement7.

The World Economic Forum warns 85 million jobs globally may be displaced by machines by 20258.

The Blue-Collar Lifeline: Why Trades Are Automation-Proof

Trades face a labor shortage - not a robot takeover:

  • Job sites are unpredictable. Will an HVAC unit fit? Is that pipe corroded? Bots can’t improvise like humans.
  • The U.S. needs 1 million new electricians by 2030 to meet EV and green-energy projects9.
  • Trade wages are rising. Median pay for plumbers is $60,090, up 12% over inflation since 202010.

Job Risk vs. Job Security

Job Type Automation Risk (2030) Demand Trend Example Roles
Data Entry Clerk Very High (80%+) Declining Billing clerk, admin assistant
Marketing Coordinator High (60%+) Declining Junior marketer, content coord
Electrician Low (10–15%) Increasing Residential, commercial, plant
HVAC Technician Low (15%) Increasing Install, repair, energy retro

The 2–5 Year Outlook

By 2027:

  • Entry-level office roles shrink ~40%11
  • AI prompt engineers earn $175K–$300K/year12
  • Skilled trade shortages worsen - construction alone needs ~546,000 workers now13

By 2030:

  • Automation covers ~50% of current tasks14
  • "AI-enhanced tradespeople" dominate - think electricians using AR glasses for diagnostics
  • Trade school enrollment triples15

Hybrid Trades: Where Tech Meets Tools

Some of the fastest-growing roles will combine physical skills with advanced tech:

  • Electricians using AR for complex wiring
  • HVAC techs with AI-driven predictive maintenance
  • Plumbers using IoT leak-detection tools

These jobs will be even harder to automate - and often pay more.

Real-World Career Pivot

In 2024, Sarah was a marketing assistant. AI cut her team from six to two. She enrolled in an HVAC certification program and landed a job before graduating - doubling her old salary and gaining long-term security.

Trade Career ROI: College vs. Trades

Path Time to Job Avg Cost (Public) Private Trade School Cost (2025 est.) Median Salary (BLS)
Electrician Trade School 6–12 months $7K–$15K (Midwest Technical Institute) $13K–$17K+ (Indeed, SoFi) $60,040
Bachelor’s Degree 4 years $85K+ (Federal Reserve) - $59,600

Notes:

  • Public/community trade programs: $7K–$15K total tuition and fees.
  • Private trade schools: $13K–$17K+ for many programs, with some reaching $20K+ per year depending on the field and institution (SoFi, Indeed, College Raptor).

Your Move: Pivot Before the Cliff Edge

If your job feels automatable - spreadsheets, customer service scripts, templated designs - start skilling up.

Why trades?

  • $0 college debt vs. $85K average student loans16
  • Earn while you learn through apprenticeships
  • ~750,000 construction openings stay unfilled each month17

Not sure where to start? Trade schools can get you started with hands-on training that leads directly to in-demand careers.

Don’t race against machines - build them, fix them, or outsmart them.

References

  1. McKinsey – Generative AI and the future of work in America (2023) ↩

  2. Restaurant Dive – White Castle brings cooking robot to 100 more restaurants (2023) ↩

  3. NBER – Working paper on automatable jobs (2024) ↩

  4. McDonald’s Investor Overview Deck v2025.6.2 (PDF) ↩

  5. OpenAI Community Forum – ChatGPT usage stats (~100M users/month) ↩

  6. HubSpot – State of AI Report (2024) ↩

  7. Reuters – IBM to pause hiring to replace 7,800 jobs with AI (2023) ↩

  8. World Economic Forum – Future of Jobs Report 2023 ↩

  9. BLS – Electricians Occupational Outlook Handbook (2025) ↩

  10. BLS – Plumbers Occupational Outlook Handbook (2025) ↩

  11. Forrester – Predictions 2025: GenAI, Citizen Developers, And Caution Influence Automation (Oct 23, 2024) ↩

  12. TechCrunch – AI may already be shrinking entry-level jobs in tech (May 2025) ↩

  13. AGC Workforce Report (2025 PDF) ↩

  14. McKinsey – Modeling automation adoption through 2030 (2024) ↩

  15. NSC Research Center – Current Enrollment Estimates, Spring 2025 ↩

  16. Federal Reserve – Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2024 (Student Loans) ↩

  17. U.S. Chamber – States suffering most from labor shortage (2025) ↩

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Brad Fishbein Licensed Mold Assessor

Meet the author: Brad Fishbein is a Florida Licensed Mold Assessor and council-certified Microbial Investigator. He’s the founder of TradeCareerPath.com and has completed over 5,000 mold inspections since 2009. Brad now helps homeowners and tradespeople make smart decisions about mold, licensing, and skilled career paths.